bank run blog

Speaking to members of Congress today, Federal Reserve Board Chairman Ben S. Bernanke delivered a message of cautious optimism about the US economy, saying that modest growth may be possible later this year. The Associated Press reports :

“Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke told Congress Tuesday the economy should start growing again later this year, his most optimistic assessment of the country’s financial health since the recession struck with force last year.”

Bernanke sees reasons for renewed hope that the economy may be on the rebound :

“’We continue to expect economic activity to bottom out, then to turn up later this year,’ he told lawmakers. ‘We expect that the recovery will only gradually gain momentum.’

Recent data suggest the recession may be loosening its grip on the country, Bernanke said.

‘The pace of contraction may be slowing,’ he said. It was similar to an observation the Fed made last week in deciding not to take any additional steps to shore up the economy.”

If the tenor of Bernanke’s economic prognosis sounds familiar, it’s only because you’re paying attention. Here’s what the Fed chairman told an audience of distinguished academics and policymakers at the International Monetary Conference in Barcelona in June, 2008 :

“We may see somewhat better economic conditions during the second half of 2008, reflecting the effects of monetary and fiscal stimulus, reduced drag from residential construction, further progress in the repair of financial and credit markets, and still solid demand from abroad. This baseline forecast is consistent with our recently released projections, which also see growth picking up further in 2009.”

Today’s guardedly upbeat remarks were made in Congressional testimony before the Joint Economic Committee. Bernanke told the same committee in March, 2007 :

“Growth in consumer spending should continue to support the economic expansion in coming quarters. In addition, fiscal policy at both the federal and the state and local levels should impart a small stimulus to economic activity this year.”

Bernanke’s forecast for 2007 concluded :

“Overall, the economy appears likely to continue to expand at a moderate pace over coming quarters. As the inventory of unsold new homes is worked off, the drag from residential investment should wane. Consumer spending appears solid, and business investment seems likely to post moderate gains.”

Keenly sensing a “cooling” of the US housing market in 2006, USA Today reported that Bernanke was expecting a “soft landing” :

“The housing market, after flying high for five years, has lost altitude but appears headed for a safe landing, Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke said Thursday.

‘It seems pretty clear now that the U.S. housing market is cooling,’ Bernanke said in a question-and-answer session following a speech he delivered on banking in Chicago.

He noted that home sales and construction are slowing.

‘Our assessment at this point … is that this looks to be a very orderly and moderate kind of cooling,’ Bernanke said.”

A former professor of economics at Princeton, with degrees from Harvard and MIT, it is certain that Bernanke is one of the best and brightest of his generation. The question is, at what?

Associated Press : Bernanke: Economy should grow again later in 2009

Federal Reserve Board : Remarks by Chairman Ben S. Bernanke at the International Monetary Conference, Barcelona, Spain (via satellite), June 3, 2008

Federal Reserve Board : Prepared Testimony of Chairman Ben S. Bernanke Before the Joint Economic Committee, U.S. Congress, March 28, 2007

USA Today : Bernanke: Housing market is headed for a soft landing (May 18, 2006)

Data from the Federal Reserve shows that, as can be expected in a deflationary depression, bank lending has continued to contract. This, in the long term, would actually be good for the underlying fundamentals of the economy, but it is disastrous for those who hope to paper over the cracks and rebuild in the same sandbox. The Associated Press reports :

“A larger share of banks has made it more difficult for people to obtain home mortgages over the last three months even as demand has grown, the Federal Reserve reported Monday.

The Fed’s new quarterly survey found that about 50 percent of U.S. banks tightened their lending standards on prime mortgages, up from about 45 percent in the survey issued in early February.

Meanwhile, 65 percent of banks said they tightened standards on nontraditional mortgages, such as adjustable-rate loans with multiple payment options. That was up from 50 percent in the last survey.

‘Even if you had a stellar credit history, banks were reluctant to lend in this environment,’ said Richard Yamarone, economist at Argus Research. With unemployment rising, it raises the odds of more people defaulting on their mortgages, he said.”

According to the Financial Times, the tendency was also apparent in commercial loan activity :

“About 40 per cent of US banks said they had tightened standards on commercial and industrial loans to businesses over the previous three months, the survey reported. The Fed said this proportion was “still very elevated” but noted that it represented fewer than half the banks for the first time since January 2008.

About 80 per cent of US banks said they had increased spreads on loans to large and mid-sized businesses, down from 95 per cent in January.

‘Large majorities of both domestic and foreign banks reported a less favourable or a more uncertain outlook, a worsening of industry-specific problems and a reduced tolerance for risk’ as reasons for tightening standards and terms on business loans, the Fed said.”

Associated Press : Fed says more banks tighten home loan standards

Financial Times : Bank lending terms keep squeeze on consumers

Henry Blodget of the Business Insider had an interesting post Friday on the topic of bear market rallies in historical context, accompanied by some excellent charts :

“Now that stocks have rallied nearly 30% off their low, pundits agree: It’s a new bull market. So be very afraid.

Market punditry is a lagging indicator, not a leading one. Pundits are excellent at describing what has happened, not what is going to happen.”

Of course, many serious economists have been warning that the tumult in the financial sector is far from over, and that the markets will see large movements as a result. Nouriel Roubini made the rounds in Europe a couple of weeks ago, purveying that same message. The Independent reported on April 21 :

“In particular, the economist warned of further dangers ahead for the financial services industry in the US. ‘I see financial shocks in the months ahead. Some financial institutions are in so much trouble we may have to take them over,’ he said, before adding that losses in the industry could rise from $1 trillion to as high as $3.6 trillion.

Firms from across financial services will go out of business or be taken over, he said, particularly focusing on the bleak future for hedge funds.

Mr. Roubini also disagrees with more optimistic forecasts for the US economy. In an interview published on Forbes.com yesterday, he said that the prediction of a 2 per cent growth rate next year was far too bullish. He called it at somewhere around 1 per cent. ‘So while we are going to be technically out of a recession, it is going to feel like a recession,’ he added.

He blamed weak recovery, deflation which would dog the US for the next two years, and financial shocks for the lower-than-expected growth.”

Business Insider : Stop Thinking The 30% Stock Rally Means The Bear Market Is Over

Independent : Stock market bulls have got it wrong, warns Nouriel Roubini

This morning’s GDP numbers were markedly worse than the consensus estimate of a 4.9 percent contraction for the first quarter. But with consumer confidence up a lot and consumer spending up a little, and with the banks apparently poised to receive billions more in emergency liquidity injections from the government, Wall Street found reasons to rally.

The widespread assumption that federal action to save a few insolvent megabanks will lead to a recovery in an economy that is more than 70 percent consumer spending is worse than incorrect, it is counterproductive. And not counterproductive as in unhelpful, but counterproductive as in your economy just contracted for the third consecutive quarter. According to the Associated Press :

“The economy shrank at a worse-than-expected 6.1 percent pace at the start of this year as sharp cutbacks by businesses and the biggest drop in U.S. exports in 40 years overwhelmed a rebound in consumer spending.

The Commerce Department’s report, released Wednesday, dashed hopes that the recession’s grip on the country loosened in the first quarter. Economists surveyed by Thomson Reuters expected a 5 percent annualized decline.

Instead, the economy ended up performing nearly as bad as it had in the final three months of last year when it logged the worst slide in a quarter-century, contracting at a 6.3 percent pace. Nervous consumers played a prominent role in that dismal showing as they ratcheted back spending in the face of rising unemployment, falling home values and shrinking nest eggs.”

Most US news outlets focused almost exclusively on the 2.2 percent rise in consumer spending to achieve the positive spin preferred by American audiences, but the fact remains that the GDP numbers are the worst since Buddy Holly released “That’ll Be The Day”. The Daily Telegraph reports:

“The world’s largest economy has now shrunk by 3.3pc since its peak last year, making this the worst recession since the 1957-58 slump, when GDP fell by 3.8pc. In addition, it is the first time since the 1974-75 downturn that America has recorded third consecutive quarters of negative growth.”

Associated Press : Economy shrinks at 6.1 percent pace in 1Q

Daily Telegraph : US in worst recession for 50 years

Spokesmen for General Motors have confirmed reports that the company will idle 13 plants for as much as 11 weeks over the summer in an effort to trim production and cut costs. Many auto industry analysts are predicting that at least some of the closed plants will never reopen. According to the Associated Press :

“General Motors Corp. said Thursday it will temporarily close 13 assembly plants in the U.S. and Mexico — some for more than two months — laying off nearly 24,000 workers to pare back a bloated inventory.

The closures, which will start in May, vary by factory from as short as three weeks to a long as 11, including the normal two-week July shutdown to change from one model year to the next.

GM said the shutdowns will help control high dealer inventories and bring manufacturing in line with sales. The company plans to cut production by 190,000 vehicles and reduce inventory from the current 767,000 to 525,000 by the end of July.

About 24,000 hourly and salaried employees will be laid off at the affected assembly plants, but there will be thousands more layoffs and temporary factory closures when GM works out its schedules for engine, transmission and parts stamping factories.”

Associated Press : GM to temporarily shut 13 plants, cut production

Wall Street Journal : GM Reducing Output To Align With Demand